Financing and resilience in energy projects.

Bankability in a global energy shock.

The recent military escalation has reignited the risk of disruptions to key global energy routes, which will have an immediate impact on oil and gas prices.

This scenario has a twofold effect on energy projects:

• higher profit potential in the short term;

• Increase in structural uncertainty in the medium to long term.

Bankability does not automatically equate to favorable volatility.

1. Network and supply chain risks.

Geopolitical tensions can:

• Component deliveries are slowing down;

• rising logistics costs;

• This creates indirect authorization delays.

Contractual stability will be crucial.

2. Revenue structure in times of extreme volatility.

In shock situations:

• Power purchase agreements with minimum prices are becoming strategic assets;

• The presence of dealers increases the risk of future price compression;

• Volatility can reduce the predictability of flows.

The lenders are demanding stronger contracts and a larger capital buffer.

3. Cost of capital and bankability.

The increase in the systemic risk premium can manifest itself as follows:

• Increase in project costs;

• higher equity capital requirements;

• Greater selectivity in banking.

Financial stability is a prerequisite for economic attractiveness.

In the event of geopolitical shocks, banking ability is measured by the capacity to absorb volatility, not by the capacity to profit from it.

Bankability means resilience in the face of opportunity.

MAIA Action